Yawgmoth’s Whimsy #157: Luck in Drafts

Last weekend, I did two Coldsnap drafts. In the first, I had five Skreds, four Elves, six Snow Lands and four Auroch Herds into double Rimehorn… And I lost in the first round. I entered another 8-4 queue, and realized I didn’t really want to play about two seconds after the draft started. I rare-drafted like crazy, ended up with a very marginal pile, and split in the finals. That got me to wondering — how much influence does luck play in drafting? So I performed a wide-scale experiment, taking several old draft decks both losing and winning, to see how much of a difference luck made… And the results were surprising.